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< General ~ Are you going to buy Heelys or Heelys Stock? |
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Posted:
Fri Jan 05, 2007 8:57 pm
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Joined: 20 Dec 2006
Posts: 125
Location: South Orange County, CA
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For you adult members...
Heelys had their IPO on Dec. 8th...ranking in the top 10 for all IPOs for the year!
It went up 85% in one day...Roger made a cool $10M.
Heely sales/revenues have doubled each quarter this year which is phenominal!
The question is: will it continue?
Or will the knock-offs steal the kids market (for international sales, this is already true).
I think that they'll have too much difficulty shutting down all the knockoffs and their sales will be severly impacted in the coming year (or they'll spend a lot of money fighting them off and revenues will drop anyway)...
What do you think?
Here's a math question for you younger folks:
Assuming Heelys' revenues continued to double every quarter for the next year...
1. If you bought a pair of $100. Heelys now, what would they be worth in a year?
2. If you bought a $100 in stock, how much would it be worth in a year? |
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Posted:
Fri Jan 05, 2007 9:13 pm
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Team Heelys - Midwest
Joined: 23 Oct 2006
Posts: 8388607
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I told my parents to buy stocks, but nooooo . . . |
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Posted:
Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:16 pm
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Museum Curator
Joined: 29 Jul 2006
Posts: 1474
Location: Central North Dakota, aka The Middle of Nowhere
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1. If you bought a pair of $100. Heelys now, what would they be worth in a year?
Nothing! Scrap rubber, frayed shoelaces, a completely worn-down back, grindplates worn down to nothing, and ruined wheels don't sell very well.
2. If you bought a $100 in stock, how much would it be worth in a year?
Ooh, the "Let's play market analysts" game. Someone with some knowledge in this area has already done this. However I don't quite think he's got his head in the right place...
Quote: | if ... wheeled sports activity products in general declines, |
Uh, that's not likely.
The thing is this- they're popular enough now that everyone who really wants a pair, already has one. The early adopter market- everyone who saw them and went "I want those." immediately- has been saturated. Since Heelys are destructible (despite their efforts, heh) repeat business means something significant. Getting a whole lot of new customers at this point involves penetrating markets that haven't been touched. The growth in America (between now and true market saturation) is likely to be quite a bit slower. Really depends on people's basic acceptance of the product and HSL's marketing team.
I think everyone knew the knockoffs were going to happen. You simply cannot sell in a lot of Asian countries without running into this problem. The loss of the Japanese patent surprises me, though.
But you're forgetting about Europe and Australia, where the patent will almost certainly be honored without too many lawsuits, and HSL hasn't completely saturated the market yet.
Speaking of lawsuits, one retarded-ass mass-tort lawsuit filed in a jurisdiction with a sympathetic judge could ruin HSL's whole day. But that holds true for rollerblades, skateboards, and practically everything else (frickin' legalistic crap). Not likely, but possible. Similarly, their manufacturing is concentrated largely in a handful of outsourcers- anything happens to one of them and surprise, massive supply shortage!
Without catastrophe, my guess? $100 now will get you $115 next year. |
Last edited by Slicer on Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:25 pm; edited 1 time in total _________________ Community: We want new Megas!
a finger on the monkey's paw curls: we get them, and they're hideous |
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Posted:
Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:21 pm
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Team Heelys - Midwest
Joined: 23 Oct 2006
Posts: 8388607
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You always say HSI and it bugs me!!! Sorry, but I'm pretty sure it's HSL for Heeling Sports Limited. |
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Posted:
Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:24 pm
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Museum Curator
Joined: 29 Jul 2006
Posts: 1474
Location: Central North Dakota, aka The Middle of Nowhere
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Ooh, I just thought of a marketing trick HSL could use. They ought to bribe amusement parks, Chuck E. Cheese's, toy stores, and places like that to put up "Heely At Your Own Risk" signs. The sign helps protect the establishment from liability while encouraging kids to partake in it. Enough convincing and maybe big-box retailers would do the same... |
_________________ Community: We want new Megas!
a finger on the monkey's paw curls: we get them, and they're hideous |
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Posted:
Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:26 pm
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Museum Curator
Joined: 29 Jul 2006
Posts: 1474
Location: Central North Dakota, aka The Middle of Nowhere
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Dammit! I keep on thinking their name is "Heeling Sports International", not "Heeling Sports Limited". |
_________________ Community: We want new Megas!
a finger on the monkey's paw curls: we get them, and they're hideous |
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Posted:
Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:26 pm
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Team Heelys - Midwest
Joined: 23 Oct 2006
Posts: 8388607
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Posted:
Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:41 pm
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Museum Curator
Joined: 29 Jul 2006
Posts: 1474
Location: Central North Dakota, aka The Middle of Nowhere
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D'oh, and I just realized that the #2 was intended to be a math question and not a speculative question.
The answer is "Not enough information". If their revenues double but their rising expenses kill their profit, that stock isn't going anywhere. (In an ideal world, anyway. In reality the stock can do anything, from rise due to "stability" to fall due to "stagnation". The stock market is just like that.) |
_________________ Community: We want new Megas!
a finger on the monkey's paw curls: we get them, and they're hideous |
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Posted:
Fri Jan 05, 2007 11:27 pm
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Joined: 20 Dec 2006
Posts: 125
Location: South Orange County, CA
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Actually, "HSL" is out...
According to all the IPO stuff it's now "Heelys Inc."
Also, their corporate e-mail addresses have all changed to <name>@heelys.com |
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